MURMUR
Forecast
Bar is the averaged probability. The bracket is the lowest and highest estimate across model samples.
1,000,000 simulated people · 20 runs · live news
Ask what happens next.
Murmur reads the latest news, finds what happened the last time, and plays the reaction out across 1,000,000 simulated people.
Day 0
- Unaware
- Aware, neutral
- Supports
- Opposes
- Simulated people
- 1,000,000
- Simulation runs
- 20
- Interactions simulated
- —
- Sources read
- —
- Model samples
- —
Spread through the population
- Aware
- Supports
- Opposes
Running the simulation…
View as table
Reaction by audience
- Supports
- Neutral
- Opposes
Bars show the split among people in that audience who hear about it.
Tone of the evidence
- Supportive
- Neutral
- Critical
Closest past events
What would change this
Sources
How this was made
Claude searches current news, picks the closest historical events and estimates a probability for each outcome. It also estimates, for each audience, how many people hear about it, how they split, and how many pass it on. Laya, a small open decision model, separately scores the tone of each source and its reading is passed to the forecasters as one signal. The audience rates drive a spread model of 1,000,000 simulated people, run 20 times in your browser. The probabilities are model judgement and the population figures are a simulation; neither is a measurement.